Christmas in Review

by M. L. Buchman

I'd give Christmas 3-stars. It opens fast and hot with Black Friday and Cyber Monday. The middle drags as the excitement is dragged over the hot coals of:

• "Not yet school recess" for little kids.
• "Semester finals" for high school and college.
• "Corporate...

Okay, I think I've killed that joke. Not what this is about anyway. So, I'll start again:

HAPPY HOLIDAYS!!!

For reasons having to do completely with the randomness of the calendar, my regular monthly post falls on Christmas Day proper. So, Santa and I are launching at the same moment.

Hope he brings lots of cool stuff. I'm Jewish, so I'll call it a Hanukkah Bush, but I enjoy our little tree and look forward to Christmas morning's treats.

Now...

Looking Back to Look Ahead.

I thought I'd take a peek at the year (especially the year to come), as it seems to be that time of year. (Tune back in on Saturday when I'll do a special edition of looking at the Decade!)

For me 2019 was a very chaotic year. The aftershocks of a major move, associated ultra-major downsizing, finally dropping me into a new community have rippled through my year. To add to that, I went back and wrote about a 25-year-ago bicycle trip around the world. A quarter-century ago I was a very, very, very different person. And revisiting that put me back into that headspace in a very strange way. Once it was done, I was glad I had. 1) Because I got to feel really good about who I've become, and 2) because I got a really cool travelogue/adventure story out of it. But the journey was a hard climb even in a low gear.

The other thing I did, that will have perhaps equally drastic ripples into the future as that journey did to my past, was that I jumped genres. My military romantic suspense writing was still doing well, but I found many indicators that said my true voice was perhaps in the suspense/thriller side of writing more than the romance side.

Reviewers and fans seem to agree:

"Tom Clancy fans open to a strong female lead will clamor for more." - Publishers Weekly

"M.L. Buchman has created the most unique, fascinating character in any genre since the Monk television series." - Ernest Dempsey, author of the Sean Wyatt thrillers

"If Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan was more than a little bit like Temperance Brennan in Bones." - Reading Reality, five stars

Drone (Nov 2019)        Thunderbolt (Dec 2019)      Condor (Mar 2020)

So, for me, it was a year of becoming "truer" to myself.

For many, it was a hard year of falling sales, or a great year of climbing sales, or a mad year of trying to write 1,2,3...6(!) novels a month to cash in. We each have had our own challenges and trials.

But not all that much changed in 2020 as far as the industry is concerned. 

• Some new markets opened up
• Vellum, Bookfunnel, and D2D got even better (no surprise on any of them)
• BookBrush jumped into the fray of awesomely useful tools
• Audiobook promotions came online with Chirp
• and Kobo finally brought their audiobook direct service online

But it wasn't nearly the massive and exciting changes we saw in 2017 and 2018. Overall, it was a relatively quiet year in the indie publishing industry.

LOOKING AHEAD

My best guess is that most of 2020 will be much the same. Toward the end of the year is when we'll probably start seeing the first really interesting changes...but I'll talk about those on Saturday as they're really multi-year. (As a teaser I'll just say that the first real ramifications of AI are coming and they're going to create amazing opportunities for authors.)

So, if changes to the industry itself aren't likely to be a big factor...what is? I expect that the bulk of 2020 will be framed by three events: 

• the American presidential election
• the British Brexit
• and the ongoing trade wars.

These will not directly effect publishing. But they will create very, very busy news cycles. I've heard two very distinct arguments about the effects of these:

1. Book sales are going to plummet as readers become addicted to news media madness.
2. Book sales are going to soar as readers seek an escape from news media madness.

Just to add to the fun, most bets have Brexit heading the UK into recession. Japan, France, Germany, and Italy may not be far behind. China's in the mix as well, though not as imminently. For the US, experts are calling it a, "potential economic slowing." Generally, though, that's good news for book sales. There is no cheaper escape (especially not per hour of enjoyment), than books.

MATT'S TWO CENTS

My bet is that 2020 will be a very lumpy year for book sales. Overall stability, but with month-to-month chaos (up, down, stable, sideways, and then maybe a brief slippage through the 8th dimension, before...).

So, what can we do? 

The cost of ad space will rise as we compete with political campaign dollars. After the Democrats spend kajillions on sorting out who the players are, the President will begin dropping his $80M warchest. Not the kind of arena I can play in anyway.

My choice for myself is three-fold.

• Judicious, focused marketing. For example, there is going to be very low political competitions in libraries and book-specific marketing platforms. I'll focus on those.
• Write steady, consistent quality material in solid series.
• And (in large, friendly letters): Don't Panic.

I expect to see a lot of author burnout/dropout in 2020 just over the stress of unpredictable sales swings and variable ad effectiveness. Some will heave dollars (dollars they possibly can't afford) into advertising, or perhaps heaving manuscripts at the wall or into the bin.

But I think those who Don't Panic, will ride through 2020 with few bad surprises and maybe a few really good ones to put under next year's tree/Hanukkah bush.

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Think I'm on the mark or completely nuts? What's your plan?

(and come back Saturday for my look at the decade to come, too.)

M.L. “Matt” Buchman started the first of over 60 novels, 100 short stories, and a fast-growing pile of audiobooks while flying from South Korea to ride his bicycle across the Australian Outback. Part of a solo around the world trip that ultimately launched his writing career in: thrillers, SF/F, and romance.

His titles have been named Barnes & Noble and NPR “Top 5 of the year” and 3-time Booklist “Top 10 of the Year” as well as being a “Top 20 Modern Masterpiece” in romantic suspense. As a 30-year project manager with a geophysics degree who has: designed and built houses, flown and jumped out of planes, and solo-sailed a 50’ ketch, he is awed by what's possible. More at: www.mlbuchman.com.