2021 Predictions for Independent Publishing from ALLi’s Debbie Young and Friends

 By Debbie Young, Indie Author & Ambassador for the Alliance of Independent Authors (ALLi)

A year ago, who could have known how 2020 would turn out? 

Certainly not me when this time last December I shared with you my predictions for indie authors for the new year. I take comfort from ALLi’s Twitter Chat host Tim Lewis, who says, “Predictions are usually wrong, but they tell you about the current zeitgeist”. So here goes for a new round of predictions for 2021, inevitably many of them connected in some way with the impact of the Covid-19. 

Despite the turmoil wrought by the pandemic, ALLi Director Orna Ross reminds us of the positives for indie authors: “All the indications are that 2020 was a bumper year for sales of author-published books, eg aggregator PublishDrive noted a 58% increase in book sales in October 2020 compared with the same month in 2019.”

But as she acknowledges, it was hardly plain sailing. “While some authors found lockdown led to inspiration, with fewer distractions and less travel giving them more time for writing and publishing, others had less time, due to caring for dependents. Still others had a hard time focusing and found the turbulence and constraints destabilising.”

Writing Priorities

 I believe that having had more time and solitude to reflect on their writing lives, more authors will now be reconsidering their priorities. We all feel more mortal now than we did a year ago. Will those used to spending every spare waking hour writing have a change of heart and spend more time with their loved ones? Might those writing to market start writing from the heart instead? (Of course, there are some lucky souls who can do both with the same book!) I predict we’ll see more passion projects in 2021 – the kind of books we don’t want to leave unwritten when we go to our graves. “I’d like to think that 2021 will be the year that quality, not quantity, takes priority,” says Carol Cooper, hybrid author of fiction and non-fiction.

Writing Trends

Earlier this year, there was much debate on author forums as to whether we’re about to see a spate of Covid-inspired fiction. The possibilities are endless, from the hospital romance of pandemic medic and patient, to dystopian apocalypse in a world where the virus mutates faster than vaccines can be found. More importantly, will readers want to read them? I back Tim Lewis’s prophesy: “The 2020s will be similar to the 1920s in having a great (but ultimately temporary) reaction to the Covid crisis, just as those in the 1920s reacted to the Spanish Flu after the First World War, so expect a revival of light, fluffy fiction towards the end of 2021 as the Covid event subsides.” I’m not saying that only because I write upbeat, feel-good fiction myself!

Orna Ross predicts a different kind of change in readers’ tastes. “Consumers will seek out more mindful and personalised experience online and off. Independent authors will source and take such readers with them into their publishing adventure, through patronage, crowdfunding, premium products and other ways, in addition to making and selling books.”

 Marketing Trends

Although independent publishing has stood up well during the pandemic, with many authors selling many more books than every before, few will have taken their eye off the constant imperative to market their books. However, there is a growing disillusionment with marketing courses that propose a one-size-fits-all solution. In one of ALLi’s recent Twitter Chats, run weekly under the hashtag #indieauthorchat, ALLi’s News Editor Dan Holloway identified as a prevailing self-publishing myth “that there’s a template for it [book marketing] you can find in a course and copy and paste into making sales. I think as indies we look far too much to a few superstars and assume the answers they found for them will work for us.”

With most live events cancelled in 2020, online advertising became very much more competitive, inflating bid prices and decimating returns. More and more authors asked themselves whether it was a waste of good writing time. In my own circle of indie author friends, many are turning their backs on Facebook and AMS ads, instead planning that the focus of their 2021 marketing strategy will be monthly reader newsletters underpinned by a strong mailing list magnet, plus occasional paid newsletters such as Freebooksy and BargainBooksy, with Bookbub still the Holy Grail.

 But first and foremost, writing and publishing more books will be their priority, in whatever frequency works best for them as individuals and for their particular business model. The old maxim still holds, especially when you are starting out, that the best marketing strategy is to write the next book.

 Indie Author Business Trends

 With so many people everywhere struggling with the long-term financial impact of Covid, more of the general public may turn to writing in hope of building much-needed income. Sadly, they will quickly discover that it’s not a get-rich-quick scheme, nor even a get-solvent-quick scheme. I just hope they manage to avoid the vultures ever hovering on the edges of the industry, picking off naïve newbies by telling them what they want to hear, before fleecing them for false promises.

 ALLi’s Watchdog John Doppler concurs: “As the pandemic puts pressure on the market, ALLi’s Watchdog Desk is already seeing an increase in scams, exploitative schemes and unqualified publishing services being pitched to authors. Chief among these are marketing services that are unlikely to yield a return on the investment. Authors must take great care to ensure that services they hire are vetted, competent, and stable, even more so in the coming year.”

Even some experienced authors were caught out this year, because their risk was not sufficiently spread across sales funnels, especially those whose incomes are dependent on physical bookstores and live events. They would do well in 2021 to broaden their operating base, taking their books wide and making sure they are well represented online.

 On the other hand, the cancellation of conventional events compelled indies to build valuable new skill sets. Award-winning author Jean Gill predicts: “In 2021, more and more authors will reach new readers and market books using audio-visuals with Zoom etc as we apply the new IT skills Covid isolation has forced on us. The must-haves will be good quality headphones and microphone, recording and slideshow software, and – to update Virginia Woolf – a home studio of your own.”

 Overall, however, there is an air of digging in for the duration. Award-winning thriller writer Alison Morton suggests: “2021 will be a year of survival and consolidation when we can gather again in real time, recover our speaking gigs and meet up with our genre colleagues. My instinct is that ebooks will still be the most consumed formats and that indie authors will turn away from time-sucking marketing to writing more books.”

 Consolidation

 As 2020 draws to a close, one of the big news stories in the world of independent publishing is was “Audiblegate”, as it became clear that Amazon had been actively encouraging Audible subscribers to return used audiobooks for credit at the expense of the authors’ royalties. As yet unresolved, this scandal has shaken the trust of many indies, particularly those whose audiobooks are exclusive to Amazon via its ACX audiobook publishing platform. It’s inevitable that in 2021 more authors will be reluctant to commit to ACX exclusivity and will publish their audiobooks wide. I suspect whether this development will also encourage more indie authors whose ebooks are in KDP Select will also take those wide as a point of principle.

More radically, will 2021 see more indies at least flirt with trade contracts for at least one book as a kind of insurance policy? Will that come to be viewed as another means of going wide? While it wouldn’t surprise me, let me remind you that the big publishing houses have struggled to cope with a pandemic that closes bookstores. Think how many books due to be launched back in the spring had their publication date put back till September. Any indie author considering this route should sign only any contracts that offer them something they can’t do as well or better as indies.

 The divide between trade and indie grows ever more blurry. ALLi Advice Center Blog Manager Sacha Black elaborates: “With yet another merger on the traditional front just announced (Penguin Random House and Simon and Schuster), I won’t be surprised if there’s another big influx of previously trad authors into the indie market.”

 Another way of bolstering your business against whatever new shocks 2021 might bring is to make your books available in as many formats as possible to maximise the earnings on each piece of intellectual property; licensing selective rights (translations, film, etc); and direct selling on your website. It’s much easier to write and publish one book in half a dozen formats than to write and publish six books in a single format.

Strengthening Foundations

 But before we get too carried away with ambitions to turn our books into Hollywood blockbusters, it’s a good idea to treat the start of a new year as a timely opportunity to take stock of where you are now and to fix any problems. Sacha explains: “Of all the lessons I’ve learned in 2020, it’s that in order to keep your business stable during global crises like coronovirus, you have to make sure your business foundations are in place. Indies are at an advantage because part of our ethos is to be independent. But it’s even more important in times like this. It’s vital we own as many of our assets as possible, that we’re up to date, our reader funnels are slick and that we have a mechanism of selling our books and products even if the big bookstores go under. Do you have a mailing list? And are your autoresponders up to date? Are you selling direct? Do you have other streams of income? Is your website clean, tidy, up to date and fitting in with your branding and current content? This year I’ve gone back to basics to ensure that the foundations I’m growing my business on are solid, and I’d recommend others do too.”

Opportunities in Audio

 Notwithstanding Audiblegate, 2021 bodes well for the audiobook market, so make sure you’re ready to roll with it. Over to ALLi’s Multimedia Manager Howard Lovy: “Last year I urged everybody to read their drafts out loud to hear how they would sound in audiobook form, since more and more people are consuming books through their ears rather than their eyes. After all, what could possibly interrupt our busy lives on the go, between our commutes to work and trips to the gym? What I did not predict, of course, was that a pandemic would force most of us back into our homes for the duration. Yet, even under lockdown, audiobook sales continue to rise. Not only that, we’re downloading more podcasts as we settle into semi-permanent home life. The move to audio appears to be pandemic-proof, so I’d advise all authors to think about how your book’s ‘voice’ sounds when paired with your literal voice (or that of an actor). Also, how can you turn your book or your author brand into a podcast? Your readers would love to listen.”

 Audio isn’t the only technical area that will see a flurry of activity in the new year, as Orna Ross explains: “2020 was also notable because of technological audiences that are making the writing, publishing and marketing of books ever easier and increasing distribution options for the self-published  authors around the world. And the Covid crisis accelerated trends that were new to other parts of the book business eg digital bookselling, online events, but already long-established practice for indie authors.”

 Conclusions

Despite the optimism and excitement surrounding the new vaccines, we still have some way to go before we can return to normal life – or whatever the new normal may prove to be. Says ALLi’s Outreach Manager Michael La Ronn, “2021 will look more like 2020 than 2019. Authors will still benefit from people staying at home, at least for much of the year. As more people emerge from lockdown and return to daily commuting, we’ll like see a resurgence in audiobook and podcast listening again.”

John Doppler concurs: “As always, changes in the industry bring challenges and opportunities. Authors who can adapt to that shifting terrain will see an unusually profitable year.”

Last word to Orna Ross: “In a year of unprecedented difficulty, self-publishing has proved itself to be not just resilient but ahead of the curve, and we expect that to continue in 2021.”

Whatever surprises 2021 may bring, keep writing and self-publishing!

Here’s to happy and healthy new year for us all.

Author Debbie Young

BIO

Debbie Young is UK Ambassador and Special Projects Manager for the Alliance of Independent Authors, the global nonprofit for professional self-publishing authors. She is also a prolific indie author, writing warm, witty fiction set in the English Cotswolds countryside where she has lived for most of her adult life. She has two series of cozy mystery novels, the Sophie Sayers Village Mysteries, starting with Best Murder in Show, and the new Staffroom at St Bride’s series, starting with Secrets at St Bride’s, shortlisted for the 2020 Selfies Award for the Best Independently Published Adult Fiction in the UK. She also has a new series of quick reads, Tales from Wendlebury Barow, which starts with The Natter of Knitters. A free short novella (11k words), The Pride of Peacocks, is available exclusively to members of her Readers’ Club, which you can join via her author website at www.authordebbieyoung.com. She also has three collections of short stories, including the Christmas-themed Stocking Fillers. Each April in her home village she runs the Hawkesbury Upton Literature Festival, showcasing dozens of indie authors, but sadly it is now postponed until 2022 due to the pandemic.

Debbie Young’s Author Website: http://www.authordebbieyoung.com

ALLi Self-publishing Advice Center Blog: http://www.selfpublishingadvice.com

ALLi Membership Website: http://www.allianceindependentauthors.org