Showing posts with label subscription services. Show all posts
Showing posts with label subscription services. Show all posts

Saturday, December 18, 2021

What’s New in Publishing: Preparing for 2022 by Maggie Lynch

Whenever I start to prepare this post every December, I look back at my previous posts. My post last year focused on four major areas of change:  1) the impact of the pandemic on book products and fan events; 2) the rise in sales of subscription services across the board; 3) International sales expanding at a higher rate than U.S. sales; and 4) Artificial Intelligence (AI) continues to make a major difference in 2021.

Honestly, I think all of those things have continued to accelerate in 2021 and I’m sure will continue into 2022. Anyone who was hoping for a return to a time when online and virtual products are not the primary way of consuming content needs to let go of that dream. Do whatever grieving ritual works for you and, if you haven’t already, prepare to embrace the digital and virtual world if you want to be involved in a career as an author.


Today, I’m going to once again focus on only three of the most important trends I see: 1) the continued impact of the pandemic on book products and fan events; 2) the importance of understanding web-based discovery tools and social media engagement; and 3) the expanding reach and use of AI coming into its own in 2022.


The Continued Impact of the Pandemic on Book Products and Fan Events


The Changing Investment in Print Books


I don’ think print books are going away. Instead, I believe they are being seen as a “premium” product by the majority of readers. There was a good number of readers (primarily those over age 50) who preferred print books or simply didn’t like the idea of reading on an electronic device. However, the pandemic changed that for many of them. Libraries closed, bookstores closed, buying print books became not only more expensive but required shipping. They were no longer a spur-of-the-moment purchase. Supply chain issues frustrated many. 


Reluctantly, this older group began trying e-readers or tablets. With practice over the past 20 months, they realized it wasn’t so bad. In fact, there were a lot of reasons for not doing print. You could get books faster and usually cheaper. Even libraries were encouraging digital downloads of ebooks because they’d been closed for so long. With the relative ease of downloading and storing hundreds or thousands of ebooks, the consumer no longer had to worry about where to store another print book, or whether/when they needed to purchase or make another bookcase. 


This translated to readers deciding only to invest in a print book if it was special, unique to the times, or may become a collectible. To reach that level of investment requires something extra. The reader loves the author already or, after reading the ebook, loved it so much she wanted it in print for her “collection.” Perhaps one would buy a print book by a favorite celebrity or political leader or highly respected writer as a way to save that as an important piece of history—in a similar way that people still buy Life Magazines as collectibles, even though the final issue came out in 2000, more than two decades ago.  


There is one type of print book that continues to be very viable, that is children’s picture books and Early Readers Books—for up to third or fourth grade. Beginning at the Middle Grade level (age 9-13) it starts tipping 70/30 toward ebooks. Print books are bought primarily by libraries and schools instead of consumers. It is not at all unusual that by the age of 9 or 10, children are reading on tablets. Part of that is because of what happened with virtual schooling for the past two years. Parents who never thought their children should be on tablets or computers had to make it happen for school. Even Kindergartners were doing online school. I still believe the value of print for middle grade is there, but I’d also not be surprised if those percentages became 50/50 by 2025.


The Death Knell of Conferences and Book Tours


In 2022, I believe that it will be unusual, costly, and only sold as a premium offering to have in-person conferences, signings, and fan interactions. Now that many libraries, bookstores, and  major conference providers, including publishers, invested heavily in the last two years to move those interactions online. I don’t see them returning in the numbers they used to be. 


The increase of relatively inexpensive, yet engagement measurable web-based solutions, make it very appealing to big and small publishers alike. Why send staff to a conference and incur the costs of airfare, hotels, food, and paying for booth space when you can put on a virtual event and get all the metadata on attendees to follow-up?  This also extends to cutting back on the costly big sales-force that travels to stores and libraries, colleges and conventions. Why do that when you can save hundreds of thousands, or millions of dollars with virtual one-on-one meetings and events. 


I don’t think conferences, symposiums and big book events will completely disappear. I believe instead businesses, publishers, authors and fans will choose carefully which one or two events are “worth it” to attend. Among my own followers, many fans have said they save all year for ONE big conference (e.g., Comic Con or a big genre-based conference like the annual Fantasy & Science Fiction Convention or a Romance specific convention). Because of the cost of travel, hotels, food, that they instead plan it as a vacation event. They want authors, free books, break-out discussions, maybe cosplay, etc. So, they will pick the largest and most prestigious events to go to.


What changes this dynamic of going virtual rather than in-person? Paid events. If the publisher or author can make money from a convention or author tour by charging fees to be seen, then it becomes viable again. Sure, they’ll sell books (or maybe give them away if the fee is high enough); but the money is made on the fees not the books. I’ve already seen some of these author tours with NYT authors or celebrity authors. Fans pay to see the author at the same prices they would pay to attend a sporting event or a touring Broadway show. 


Don’t believe me? I’ve already seen several events posted in central Willamette Valley in Oregon (well outside of the big city of Portland) with authors at a big arena where prices range from $25 in the nose bleed seats to over $100 to have a seat in the orchestra seats—the large section closest to the stage. These are 5,000 + auditoriums.


The Critical Importance of Web-based Discovery Tools and Social Media Engagement


Whether it is print books, ebooks, or audiobooks—or any new digital publishing opportunities, 2022 will continue to accelerate the many digital trends that began taking hold in 2018 and have only grown during the pandemic. The strongest developments relate to niche development and search engine optimization (SEO), with the development of online communities a strong contender for the top trend. Niche publishers continue to flourish, and they will increase in popularity, especially in the digital publishing realm.


Increase Your Expertise and/or Your Partnership with Knowledgeable Web-based Companies


The need to understand and leverage web-based services has only grown. With the plethora of electronic delivery mechanisms for content (including books) you can no longer be competitive with only a blog or a single social media site like Facebook. You definitely MUST have a website if you want to build brand loyalty. You need to be and several social media platforms, and you need a consistent fan engagement strategy. All of this requires either training to understand how all these elements work together or to partner with a company or person who does understand it and will keep your presence alive. 


Money follows ease of use, so authors and publishers need to focus most on website speed and infrastructure. Plan for tomorrow, not just what you are doing today. Emerging content importance includes podcasting, 4K video, and other bandwidth hogs. It is even more critical to understand the role off mobile users which have far outpaced laptop or desktop users. Mobile users expect all content to load just as quickly and easily on their phone as on their desktop computer. Website design plays a vital role in brand building and SEO. 

You may need to look into a redesign that focuses on redistributing the information, the navigation, and the SEO to make it much easier for consumers to find your products and content.

Niche Publishing Grows Faster than General Publishing

Small online publishers have honed their niches. Digital publications will further rely on user trust built from quality editorial content. This means that even large publishers are now creating platforms that can collect and visualize niche audiences, use community data to segment their offering, and therefore actually capture more sales through individualized search and follow-up. This is where understanding your unique brand and the “niche” you serve helps you to grow faster than attempting to reach the entire world with a more general approach.

In 2022, it will all be all about building brand loyalty.  The best publishers, traditional or indie, will develop content, experiences, and customer service channels for their loyal customers to cultivate “community.” Marketing campaigns will combine networked events with increased partnerships—whether they are other publishers working together or a group of authors working together toward common marketing goals. 

Building the audience only begins the process. Publishers also need to monetize traffic, and one 2022 trend is their development of new revenue streams. This may be doing subscription-based or fan-loyalty discounts. Making certain content paid (e.g., select blog posts or podcasts; bonus content; networking options for fans)

Social Media’s Continued and Changing Viability

Just as niche engagement has grown, so has the diversification of social media use both for regular engagement and for advertising. Facebook, Instagram and Twitter still remain with the largest number of users. However, the lack of transparency and continue algorithm changes that limit page reach has made Facebook the least used platform in publishing now. Facebook and Instagram are still good platforms for staying engaged with those who already like you and your brand. They are not considered good platforms for those needing to find new fans. 

Twitter has remained relevant for publishers, but it’s short form messaging continues to challenge sales-related opportunities. With a change in Twitter’s leadership beginning in 2022, many people are taking a wait-and-see attitude as to if it is worth sticking with in the future. 

Video-based content has grown exponentially in the past year and is likely to continue its rise in 2022. Though YouTube and Vimeo are still a good place for long form video content, their increased reliance on commercial/ad use has made them less interesting for book consumers. And the ease of producing quality video for these platforms is still daunting to the average user.

This is what has made a platform like TikTok so relevant. TikTok has grown far beyond its beginnings in silly dances, pranking, and outrageous humor (though that is still available there). An entire author/publisher network around “booktok” and “authortok” has done very well. I would predict there will be competitive platforms similar to TikTok coming by the end of 2022—perhaps with the allocation of longer videos. The critical design that has propelled TikTok to such wide use is that it is easy to use on a cell phone and one doesn’t have to have a lot of video editing skills to make it work. The downside for some content creators but beloved by many consumers is the shortness of the videos (currently limited to three minutes). This also helps to ensure no bandwidth or buffering problems because of the three-minute limit.

Most interesting to me has been the return to long-form content in some way—blogging , weekly or more newsletters, subscription services for long-form content. For the past three to five years it seemed that many authors/publishers had abandoned the blog to engage in social media and sought out a lot of AI-based solutions for building fans. However, that has slowed much more significantly and people have returned to the long-form content is best at building brand loyalty. In addition, the longer form written content lends itself to increased SEO, which would argue for a way to make newsletters public or post the most important content in a blog to capture that SEO benefit.

An important consideration for Video or Audio-based content is to also have available a transcription of the content. This is good for those with hearing difficulty. It is also excellent for that increased SEO that is critical for indexing your content for search.

The Expanding Reach and Use of AI in All Aspects of Publishing


I’ve been talking about AI for at least three years now, maybe more. And every year, people think I’m crazy. Perhaps it’s because of my technical background. I’ve seen the growth of AI over the past two decades, and it has certainly accelerated in the past three years. In the past I’ve talked about AI in terms of software for productivity—like plotting, all types of story structure building, formatting, and even for creating SEO without having to really understand the back-end coding at all.

But for 2022, AI has exploded in major ways that can make communication easier, reach into foreign markets easier, and the ability for authors and publishers to get more derivative products out the door quickly and with less expense.

You may remember that last year I talked about how foreign sales of books were growing much faster than books sold in the English language market. Part of that is simply a matter of population. Countries like India (1.3 billion people) and China (1.45 billion people) together comprise 37% of the entire world population. It is also a matter of reading habits. You may remember this little infographic from last year (Data from 2017. I haven’t seen an updated one) where both India and China citizens read a lot more hours per week than the US, UK, Canada, or Australia—primarily English-speaking markets.


Translation AI

Think about some of the most exciting holiday gifts this year—things that not that long ago were science fiction. You can now buy a pocket translator that carries anywhere from a dozen languages up to over one hundred. You select the two languages, speak into the device and it’ll quickly say the phrase in the intended language. Because pocket translators are designed specifically for translation, these devices are much faster and more advanced than your normal smartphone translator app or Google Translate. This is based 100% on AI--software programs built to learn and get better as they are used and corrected over time. 


Why does that matter to authors and publishers? Because the cost of translating a book has now gone down significantly. Instead of the usual $5,000+ for the average novel, it has come down to under $100. Will you want to use a professional translator to check it? Probably—especially if you use a lot of slang or colloquial speech, or onomatopoeia—in your book. But, in my experience, with using DeepL and having native speaker/readers (not translators) review the entire book, it is 95% or more already there. The cost for me? One month’s payment of $6.99 which allows for up to 5 files to be generated. So, for $6.99 I can go from English to German, French, Italian, Spanish, and Japanese if I like. Or whatever mix of the 24 language selections DeepL currently processes. It is 100% AI, using neural networks and learning so it gets better with the number of users and reported corrections.


With good translation I have the ability to take a book in English and potentially make it 24 products. But translating to languages spoken in countries with high reading rates would make the most sense. Equally important is that translation helps with other AI partners as well. 


Text to Speech AI for Audio


Audiobooks are another area that has been booming. Still increasing in double digits, data for 2021 is look at about 25% increase year over year. In the past text to speech AI has sounded very robotic. It then improved to not being so robotic but still devoid of emotion (think of Data in StarTrek before he got an emotion chip). It has now, at least in short iterations, become more realistic. In fact, in each of the ones featured here, one can go back and tweak the algorithm in certain passages or as a whole to be more “emotional”.


I’ve listened to a number of short parts AI narration for each of the platforms mentioned below. Is it perfect? Darn close. After listening to an entire chapter (15-20 minutes) one can start to hear/feel the repetitive pattern of the voice. But I’m not sure it makes it less real. After all, every narrator has a certain pattern to their voice. Clearly, I think one could use AI without a problem for nonfiction. 


In terms of fiction, I think it has more to do with each author’s expectations of emotion and the possible desire for a change in pitch or character voice that only a professional actor provides. Also a change in softness or loudness that can sometimes add to the scene. For some fiction authors, none of that is important. They aren’t looking for an “acted” narration, instead preferring a “reading.” In that case the quick timing and price may be well worth it. 


Here are three top AI Narration tools that I’ve looked into: Deep ZenScribe Audio, and Speechki. All of these have some similar mechanisms. They all have a catalog of voices that have already been input into the system. These are voices from professional narrators who have agreed to have their voice “cloned.” What that means is that the system has an understanding of how each narrator’s voice rises and falls during a sentence, how long of a pause they typically make at a comma or a period. What types of markings (e.g., an explanation point vs a semi-colon) or keywords (sad, mad, angry, quiet, loud, etc.) indicates a change in voice level or pacing. Then the AI processes all that and, just like the language translator I mentioned above, learns how to put words together and make them sound “natural.” 


All three of these systems also have the ability for the author, or any chosen narrator, to provide their own voice to be “cloned” and then used to narrate the book with the AI processing. Kind of a way to sound like yourself but not have to do the hours and hours of recording.  


The time it takes to produce an audiobook ranges from a month, in the case of DeepZen, to 15 minutes if it is total AI. The cost also varies typically from $500 on the low end for more the more “common” voices to $1,000 on the high end for a “high quality” voice. That is about 1/3  to ½ the likely cost to pay the minimum SAG/AFTRA price of $225 per finished hour, which for a 65K book would be a little over $1,500.  


Of the three mentioned above, Scribe says they also employ a team of “literature analysts” who go through each page and enter metadata that will help to increase the emotion when the AI does the narration. Being a metadata geek from the old days of building standardized modules, that intrigues me. I suspect it also means the end product costs more because they’ve employed a real human to interpret things in advance. They don’t provide pricing on their website and it appears their primary immediate aim is to work with big publishers who want to take a large portion of their catalog through this system to put out audiobooks.


Speechki also excites me because they are the only one with a mission to provide narration beyond the English language. The idea is that the end user (the listener) can choose which language they wish to listen in. So Speechki would have the ability to switch to any one of 72 languages. They currently have  251 voices in 72 languages, including more than 50 American voices. They have already processed upward of 1,000 books, mostly in Swedish and Russian.  I am unsure exactly how this process works as there is not a lot of discussion about it on the website. I also wonder (perhaps assume) that one would have to provide a translation for each language in order for it to be but to a specific language AI, but am unsure.


FINAL THOUGHTS


There is no doubt that competition as a whole is increasing. There are more books and book products being put out every year by both traditional publishers and indie publishers. Just in the decade I’ve been immersed in publishing I’ve seen a big shift in both the competitiveness and the costs to individual authors and to big publisher. This means that the more one can differentiate themselves from the masses the more likely you are to succeed. 


This doesn’t mean your book needs to be wacky or completely different from any book out there. Nor does it mean if you write tropey genre fiction that you don’t stand a chance of success. But it does mean it needs to have a unique hook or presence in the zeitgeist to make it stand out and rise in the marketplace. Each book is competing against big publishing and the market and money it controls, against authors who already have a solid platform and track record of excellence, and everyone else who writes books with similar themes, goals, or genre tropes as your book. So, how do you stand out? That goes back to knowing your niche, and building a brand that people want. 


Books are just one creative product that is developed from the words you write, the stories you tell. In 2022 and beyond, it may be that the written word will no longer be the primary product. It may be that audiobooks, or video content, or some combination of print, ebook, audio, and video will be needed to compete. The more you see your book as a single product that has the capability of being many products, the more likely you are to make money off of your creations. Also, the more likely you are to gain fans who can access your creation in a way that they most enjoy.


I now automatically think of every book I create as a minimum of three products: ebook, print book, and audiobook. But I also think beyond that if I’m writing in series or connected stand-alones. I think of box sets of ebooks, print and audio. I think of possible serials of a single book or a group of books. I think of potential NFT products (collectible special books that add things no other book of that title contains). I think of a product that combines ebook and audiobook in one product. I think of a product that perhaps contains video or some enhanced interactivity in addition to the ebook and audio. In other words, every story or nonfiction content I write has the possibility for multiple derivative and combined products. 


I believe AI will help in the creation of some of those combinations. I believe licensing rights will help in the creation of some of those combinations. I believe learning to create those combinations myself is another possibility. In the end, what I really want is for the story, the narrative to get out there; and for it to speak to someone who finds joy or learning, or is simply entertained.


Happy 2022 Writers and Readers! May your creations find their niche and bring meaning

and joy to all those who encounter them.


Maggie Lynch is the author of 27 published books, as well as numerous short stories and non-fiction articles. Her non-fiction focuses on guiding authors to business success in their career.

Her fiction spans romance, suspense, fantasy and science fiction telling stories of men and women making heroic choices one messy moment at a time.


You can learn more about Maggie and her books at https://maggielynch.com Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | LinkedIn |


Saturday, December 5, 2020

Changes In Publishing 2020 - 2021 by Maggie Lynch

Wow! 2020 has been quite a year. I’ve heard from authors who have had their most successful year ever because of the pandemic and people reading more. I’ve also heard from authors who have had the worst year ever because of the pandemic and people reading less. 

How can they both be right? Genre, distribution, types of books they distribute (ebook, print book, audiobook). The one thing I know about publishing is that it is not even across genre and product type. Even if everything else is equal, genre definitely has its ups and downs based on what is happening the real world.

As I gathered my research for predicting changes in publishing for 2021, I realized that data on the impact of the pandemic is limited. Most of the reporting I could find reflected only through May. This is typical as statistical analysis is time consuming and relies on reporting from many entities. Because we haven’t had this kind of pandemic for a century and comparing publishing statistics from 1920 to now would be ridiculous. But the data we do have is pretty remarkable. 

My predictions are based on a review of both 2019 data and early 2020 data. The good news is that indie authors will likely receive the most rewards from the changes in publishing—moving primarily to digital media during the pandemic. How long that will last will depend on how or if traditional publishers will adapt their pricing and availability to compete better in the digital market.

As always there is more to report than page space. I’ve narrowed them to four big changes: 1) the impact of the pandemic on book products; 2) the rise in sales of subscription services across the board; 3) International sales expanding at a higher rate than U.S. sales; and 4) Artificial Intelligence (AI) continues to make a major difference in 2021.

Pandemic Impacts

While millions of people have been limited to their homes and economies faced a major downturn, each person has been looking to kill boredom. For those that aren’t spending ten hours a day on social media, they had to turn to something else. For some that means streaming Netflix or Prime Video. For others it is listening to audio. For many it has been reading. Even though book readers may have preferred print, they found it hard to come by with bookstores closed and even Amazon delivery of print books delayed when they put delivery of “essential products” first. In the case of bestselling books, people often waited more than a month to get the book delivered.

That boredom was instead cured by ebooks and audiobooks that were easily downloaded to phones, tablets, and sometimes desktop computers. I believe the pandemic has advanced the uptake of digital media by at least five years. 

As of May 2020 the Association of American Publishers (AAP) reported revenues for hardbacks down 18.5%, and paperbacks down 16.9% on a year to date basis. On the bright side ebook and audiobook revenue was up. Ebooks up by 39.2%, and audiobooks up by 22%. Again, these were comparisons to the same period in 2019.

Audiobooks continue to be a double-digit revenue generator year over year. As of May 2020, audiobook sales were up 27% compared to the same time last year. Who are these audiobook listeners it seems that the majority of them (57%) are under the age of forty-five. Edison Research national survey of American audiobook listeners ages 18 and up all increased their listening in terms of the. Number of audiobooks. The most popular audiobook genres continue to be mystery/thriller/suspense.  

A 2019 survey by Edison Research reported that half of all Americans over the age of 12 listened to an audio book in the past year. Fifty percent of the listeners were below the age of 45. The average number of audiobooks listened to in a year was eleven.  That is higher than the average number of print books or ebooks read in the U.S. which was six and four respectively. 

Libraries have also been a major part of ebook and audiobook purchases during the pandemic. As they closed their doors many libraries changed their budgets to allow more digital download media to be purchased, and that meant decreasing the budget for print. Some very large systems were already undertaking a major overhaul of library space in light of more digital collections, now using the space for artisan showings and things other than books that could be borrowed—including a variety of recorders, power tools, museum or park passes, musical instruments, and many more. 

Though many people my age (baby boomers) are reluctant to give up print, once they have downloaded three or four ebooks or audiobooks they are quickly hooked on the ease of access as well as the significantly reduced price (except for bestsellers). In addition, the younger generation—those under 40 years old—grew up in a digital world and the majority were never attached to print books. Do you remember the rise of Wattpad? A free writing and reading platform that used to be the indie bestseller creator? Most of that group is hitting 30 years old now. They learned to read online and have been among the major  consumers of ebooks and audiobooks. Given the movement toward climate and resource conservation, I really don’t see print books remaining except as unique collections of antiques or very special books. 

Subscription Services Dominate Sales Worldwide 

Subscription Services are on the rise, and have increased by double digits during the pandemic. All aggregators are reporting nearly 50% of all sales are to subscription services. This is both in ebooks and audiobooks. 

In the Bookwire report mentioned above for Europe digital sales during the lockdown, they also mentioned a 37% rise in people signing up for new digital ebook and audiobook subscriptions. How does this breakdown by subscription service?

·       In terms of worldwide reach, ScribD is in 194 countries. Though they had a difficult start when Amazon challenge them with Kindle Unlimited only a year after startup, they stuck with it and hit 1 million subscribers at the beginning of 2019. They reported a 36% rise in the first half of 2020.

·       Amazon’s KDP Select for authors (Kindle Unlimited for readers) is still the largest membership at an estimated 10 million subscribers in the eleven countries it serves. They are certainly the dominant subscriber service in the U.S. and the U.K. However, major publishers have mostly refused to sign up their front list, and most everywhere else in the world they far outpace Amazon KU subscriptions in those countries. In addition, authors are forced to choose between exclusivity to participate in KU vs going with many other subscription services that have no exclusivity.

·       In 2017 Kobo introduced the Kobo Plus Subscription model in Belgium and the Netherlands as a pilot. They were primarily concerned about piracy and tracking. It did so well they launched in Canada at the beginning of 2019 and launched in France this year. With a membership of approx. 170,000 they are not in the range of other subscription services. However, given their worldwide reach in retail books, it is possible they will grow more quickly over the next few years.

·       Sweden’s Storytel hit 1 million subscribers in June 2019. In the first half of 2020 they reported subscriber growth of 38% and streaming revenue growth of 45%. They were also able to raise over $96 million dollars in new funding, showing a strong vote of confidence in the unlimited subscription model. They are major service in 16 countries, including: Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, India, Italy, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Singapore. Along with ScribD it is their purpose to become larger than Kindle Unlimited for the rest of the world outside the North America. They have 40 additional countries on the radar and may use recent fundraising to accomplish that quickly. 

In short, though western publishing has not embraced subscription services, this is a huge opportunity for indie publishers—particular those looking to grow their market share. It is true that the royalties per unit are less (based on how far readers read in the book), but the discoverability is very high with more people trying your books and, if they like it, reading the whole thing. ScribD is still a full royalty pay when the full book is read. Unlike Amazon KU which averages about 30% of unit sales royalties when the full book is read. Furthermore, no one except Amazon requires exclusivity. 

International Sales Increase at a Faster Rate Than U.S. Sales 

I think most American’s tend to really think U.S. centric in terms of sales and readers. Interestingly, U.S. readers are not the most readers in the world. Many are above us in terms of daily book reading habits as this graphic from Statista shows in 2017. 

For a larger graphic with more details go to the Global English Editing World Reading Habits which takes several Statista reports and breaks it down into more details. Including which were the most popular books read in various countries. 

Though the U.S. began at the leading edge of ebook technology and people regularly online, we are no longer in the lead in terms of innovation and certainly not the lead in terms of the number of people online. Partly that is due to simple population numbers, but also the per capita number of readers in other countries are a lot higher than in the U.S. 

One book-centric expert on this is Mark Williams, Editor in Chief of The New Publishing Standard (TNPS) which focuses on the Worldwide Market in print and ebook. 

“Today there are just shy of 4.7 billion people online, many in places you’d least expect. The USA is not the biggest. In fact, it comes in at only third place, behind China (854 million internet users) and India with 560 million people online. The USA has 312 million online and no room to grow.” –Mark Williams 

I’ve heard some people say, “Sure they have internet but that doesn’t mean they are readers or spend money purchasing books.” The world’s biggest book fairs prove this wrong. In Egypt. 3.5 million people attended their Bookfair this year. The Algeria, Iran, Sharjah (UAE) and Kolkata (India) International Book Fairs each attracted over 2 million visitors in 2019. The Riyadh (Saudi Arabia), Baghdad (Iraq), Buenos Aries (Argentina), Bangkok (Thailand), Havana (Cuba), Colombo (Sri Lanka), New Delhi (India), Muscat (Oman), Hyderabad (India) and numerous other international book fairs each attracted over 1 million visitors in 2019. 

Let’s compare that to the U.S. largest book fair, the New York Book Expo.  Attendance in 2019 was approximately 20,000 people. Slow to move to the virtual platform they changed dates of the expo three times 2020 and then cancelled altogether, setting a spring 2021 date. 

On the other hand, the UK’s 10-day Hay Festival from Wales quickly pivoted from in-person to online in April-May, drawing an online crowd in excess of 500,000 proving that literary events can be just a mouse click away. Also Big Bad Wolf pivoted from in-person events in 12 countries to online events with millions of books sold at each. Big Bad Wolf sells English-language books to Thailand,  Indonesia, Sri Lanka, The Philippines, Cambodia, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Myanmar, Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia. The final online event was in November in Malaysia, their home country. Its four-day online sale extended to eight days because of the online traffic. They started with 1.5 million buyers online.   

How important are international sales? Consider that Penguin Random House opened an exclusive ebook store on Amazon in order to reach India’s 500 million internet users. 

“We are witness to, and participants in, a digitally-driven, global renaissance quite unprecedented in human history. Don’t let it pass you by while you obsess over one company and one or two markets.”Mark Williams, The New Publishing Standard. 

Artificial Intelligence (AI) Continues to Scale, Lowering Production Costs for Everyone 

Last year I talked a bit about AI inroads to publishing. There are many ways AI is being used regularly already. Some of these we may take for granted, not realizing it uses some type of AI. 

Research:  Publishing, especially in academia, involves tremendous amounts of research. Databases going online, journals online have cut this down over the past three decades. AI helps with this process by going through huge amounts of data in a matter of seconds and providing valuable results based on author, journal, keywords, phrases. 

Finding your target audience: Crafting your content to appeal to your target audience will take your published work to the next level. In addition to the help of SEO tools now available to indie authors (e.g., Yoast SEO for Wordpress sites), there are other AI-enabled tools that try to predict the behavior of your intended audience. This is especially true in advertising platforms like Facebook, Twitter, Google when you select targeted audiences. It is also available to individuals through tools like Publisher Rocket which does comparisons of competitor books, authors, sales, keywords, and categories. There is still more development in this area but the predictive abilities are much more robust than even three years ago. 

Automating routine tasks: Publishers and distributors regularly use AI to detect false or plagiarized content, recognize statistical errors, identify repetitive-sounding texts, fact-check key areas of published work and a lot more. These tasks traditionally require a lot of manpower. Combined with the data mining, this task alone lets authors publish larger amounts of data. 

Editing Text: Proofreading and formatting has long been available in a variety of software applications that indie authors can use. Even within formatting software, like Vellum, there is proofreading based on spelling and grammar. These tools allow you to fix errors in grammar and context. In the case of formatting, software provides specific style guides that ensure there is a consistent look and feel throughout a book. 

All of the above is already available, and has been available with software programs developed using AI tools. They will continue to get better as the tools learn. But the biggest development I’m following and am really excited about is the continued AI translations of text. Already, Google has an app for phones that can translate conversations in real time. If I encounter a Spanish speaking person, I can ask the app to translate spoken words to English and it will do it nearly simultaneously. It won’t be perfect but it will be understandable. This reminds me of Star Trek translators from the 1960s finally coming to fruition. 

Translating Books with AI 

Of course, translating books is a more difficult step. In spoken language you can get away with small mistakes because the other person isn’t expecting perfection and makes sense of your speaking from body language and gestures. However, books are the ultimate form of language nuance and context. In addition, the role of “voice” is critical. That means the translation is much more exacting. 

Currently, there are a variety of highly respected AI translation tools available to the nonfiction market that are used regularly by large businesses (e.g., legal, medical, and translation for general sales). AI has become 90% or more accurate for these market segments. In general, translation of nonfiction, particularly technical or expert-based nonfiction, is quite good. It tends to be more formal and uses terms that have already been translated thousands of times in journals or scientific publications. 

Where AI still needs more development is in learning the nuances of language, that are so embedded in good fiction or narrative nonfiction. For example, the use of pronouns, possessives, and personal plurals are all problematic in many languages. That is because of the relationship of people and the formal or informal language used within the story or nonfiction is different than it is in English. Where we may have one word, like “you,” other languages change that word based on the relationship of the speaker to the reader or a character in a fiction book. Then, of course, there are the difficulties of fiction language—particularly metaphor and simile, as well as idioms in humor. I’ve written a blog about this recently, Lost in Translation: A look at the viability of AI translation. The article describes in greater detail how AI works for translation and where authors can capitalize on it, as well as the important role of a human translator and/or editor. 

In terms of indie author accessibility to AI translation, there are two that are affordable. One is DeepL ($9/month for up to 5 books/month). You can load the entire book at once and get back the entire translation within a minute. They have most of the world languages available. 

The other is Google Translate online (free). You can copy and paste up to 5,000 characters, including spaces (about 600 words) at a time. Not only is this very time consuming, but you have to then copy the translation and paste it into a new document making sure the chapters and spacing are all done correctly. It appeared to me that the more words I copy and pasted, the less accurate it became as there was no relationship to the previous words to learn the context. For me, using Google Translate is not a viable option. 

I don’t think that AI translation will ever equal human translators. However, I do believe that we are close now, and in three more years it will be even better. I do think it is at the point where I can get a solid draft that can then be edited by a human translator. The good news is that cuts costs in half. Instead of the typical $5,000 for a 75K word book, translation editing costs between 30% and 50% ($1,500 to $2,500) depending on the language, the country, and the individual editor. 

Based on Publishing Changes What Might Your 2021 Prep List Look Like? 

·         Make sure your website is the best it can be. Take advantage of SEO software to increase discoverability as much as possible.

·         Freshen your online book descriptions and your author bio everywhere you can, taking advantage of keywords, categories, snippet descriptions and the like.

·         Check your email signature and clean out your inbox.

·         Consolidate to-do lists. Do the things you’ve been putting off (software updates, saving things to backups, security checks), especially the digital maintenance work that, if things go bad, could really impede your ability to promote a book or even exist.

·         If you aren’t already, consider expanding your international reach through aggregators and subscription services.

·         Begin thinking about translation and if it makes sense to you. You might begin small, with a novelette or novella and see how it plays. If you want to know where to start, consider German, Italian, Spanish, and French in that order.


Maggie Lynch is the author of 26+ published books, as well as numerous short stories and non-fiction articles.  Her fiction tells stories of men and women making heroic choices one messy moment at a time. 

She is the founder of Windtree Press, an author publishing cooperative with 23 authors and over 250 titles. She is also the owner of POV Author Services, a business dedicated to helping indie authors succeed in the business of writing and publishing. 

You can learn more about her and her career at: 

https://maggielynch.com

https://povauthorservices.com

https://windtreepress.com